Lake Superior frozen: Anyone walking to Isle Royale? :)

[DonNewcomb]

I just read that Lake Superior was frozen solid this year. Wonder if anyone is doing any ice trekking. Perhaps a change in the wildlife scene on the island?

[treeplanter]

No doubt this is the winter to view the ice caves at the Apostle Islands and the rock formations at Pictured Rocks. As for Isle Royale, I'l pass on skiing to the island. I'm quite content to read the latest from the ongoing moose study.

I do recall reading that back in the 1970's people had snomobiled from Thunder Bay to Isle Royale. The research team on the island at that time saw the tracks.

[Capt Don]

More meteorological babble, much like the new trend of giving "feels like" temps, give me the real air temp and wind speed and I'll base my decisions on those. There is a lot of ice on the lake, there are also a lot of windy days. With the exception of some bays and areas with traditional ice coverage that get locked in the ice is moving around and not very thick as a rule. I fish 4-6 miles out onto the lake from bays in Canada, looking out into the lake there will be ice one and none the next, it is moving around with wind and current. With the early ice this season and persistant cold temps I really thought the entire lake may lock up with ice. With February nearly half over and still considerable open water despite the past temps I'm thinking I was wrong. The sun is getting stronger and out longer each day and if temps go above normal any chances of more ice this year will be slim. There has been some areas between the island and the Canadian shore that has had ice for an extended time, not sure how thick, but lots of openings in the ice floes. Not sure if anything was able to wander over to or back from the island.

[Ingo]

Thanks Don! Satellite pics are great, but still no substitute for feet on the ground (or on the ice...)

[treeplanter]

Latest ice chart (2-8-2014) from the Canadians. Look at the bottom for an explanation as to the colors:

[Capt Don]

I look at those reports too, I do understand the colors, I don't the understand the letter and number table (if someone knows how to read these tables post it please). I also don't know how they get the data to generate these reports, I don't see any regular airplane traffic or traffic of any kind. I know the USCG estimates ice coverage based on data sources, maybe Canada does the same. I know for a fact that you could drive a pickup anywhere you like on Black Bay (the next big bay northeast of Thunder Bay) the closest road is near Pass Lake, ON. Looking at the ice table one could assume that same ice would extend to isle royale. If anyone out there is willing to continue from Black Bay to isle royale I'll chip in for the gas, you should be able to go right through north gap and into Windigo if this info is accurate. Heck, might as well bring John and Rolf a fresh hot pizza from Thunder Bay and don't forget a starter for the downed snowmobile. The satellite photos are the next best thing to being here, but the pictures are nearly always cloudy, even on perfectly clear days. Those clouds are generated by open water on the lake in many cases. Truly frozen areas have no moisture to give up and always look like ice, on inland lakes as well as Superior.

[treeplanter]

I don't understand the letters or numbers on these ice charts either. I mainly look at the colors to see where the good ice is. According to the latest info, it sure looks like there's a good bit of thick ice between the Sleeping Giant and NE Isle Royale. For several days now too. And the 8 -14 day forecast is calling for continued below average temps for the entire Great Lakes basin..

I wish the researchers would write about what they see as they make their flights over the island looking for moose and wolves. They have the best seat in the house when it comes to seeing if there's a good ice bridge between the island and the mainland. But so far, they've mentioned nothing.

[Ingo]

If I got this right, my lay summary of the "I" section is:
It's all but frozen over with half the ice being 12-27 inches thick in floes up to 1 1/4 miles wide, and the other half is 6-12" thick in floes up to 1/3 mile wide.

Here's the explanation of the "Egg Codes": http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default. ... 1&toc=show

9+ almost completely frozen over >90%
5 5 numbers following refer to half and half of the ice
7 5 thickness: 1st half is 30-70 cm (12-27 in), 2nd half is 15-30 cm (6-12 in)
5 4 floe size: 1st half is 500-2000m floes, 2nd half is 100-500m floes

That's my best stab at it .

[Capt Don]

John, I think you've got it! It appears (to me anyway) that some level of estimation goes into these reports, and, these reports are made for use by vessels that might need to transist an area by water and float. Not fools like me on a snowmobile, that sinks, traveling on ice in search of fish. I will continue to trust my eyes, feet and chisel for determining ice thickness. I have been able to see open water between the Canadian shore and isle royale all winter long regardless of how cold its been. I, for one, am a little worried that if there is indeed enough ice for a wolf to walk to the island that the latest history (2008) could repeat itself and one or more wolves could leave the island.

[Midwest Ed]

. . . . one or more wolves could leave the island.

My earlier thought as well. Hard to think like a wolf but their perspective and motivations could easily be 180 degrees opposite ours.

Here's the NOAA perspective on the ice situation.

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glc ... pe=N&hr=00

Make sure you check out the animations.

[treeplanter]

Don, do you ice fish just around Grand Portage? Or do you head farther east?

It sure looks like far NE Isle Royale was the place to be this year for any sort of prolonged ice bridge to the mainland.

The new 8 -14 day forecast came out yesterday showing a dramatic warmup in store for the Great Lakes area (can't say I'm going to complain, it was -22F at my place this morning). If good ice is going to form and stick around, it better do it now.

[Capt Don]

I fish many of the bays that traditionally freeze well enough that the ice can't break off and send one adrift and will have a minimum of 5-6 inches of good ice before I bring a snowmobile on it. The bays I fish begin in Grand Portage and extend to the Pays Plat area of Nipigon Bay. Depending on the elevation of the land in these areas there is exceptional visibility towards the island. There has been flow ice for an extended period on the NE end of the island, it has been breaking up and refreezing depending on the winds and there is always a pretty good current running between the island and the manland in that area. This broken ice will generally freeze deeper as this pack ice piles up on top of itself creating a "cold sink" of sorts into the water. There are nearly always leads of open water between these flows that never get any more than night ice, (a thin skim ice that forms overnight) that breaks open with sunlight, current and light wind and wave action. That may or may not inhibit travel by animals depending on the span of these leads. Wolves that have been walking on ice where open water exists have been witnessed walking very near the edge of the ice on the open water side. This is most likely a survival instinct that would allow the animal to have open water to swim freely to get back upon the ice rather than breaking through in an area that could leave them trapped and unable to swim freely in broken ice cakes that could close above them.

There have been tales over the years of snowmobiles and even tractor trailers going to the island from the MN and Canadian shores. I know many elders and other lifelong residents, (including a handful of daredevils that could try this) that have worked on and around the lake, some getting well into their 80's, and not one of those could substantiate even one of these stories. This area has a small population today and it was much smaller 40-50 years ago, the happinings in these stories would never have gone unoticed even if it happened at night.

The warmer weather will come despite my fondness of the cold and ice. Our heaviest ice is typically present right around this time of year and it will stay for a while but seldom build any more. Hence my reason for conceding that my prediction for complete ice coverage this year was wrong.

[treeplanter]

I recall reading many years back that the researchers reported seeing snowmobile tracks coming from the mainland. I’m guessing this would be back in the 1970’s. Not sure where I saw this though.

If there was ever a winter for an ice bridge to form, this would have been the year. A friend told me that Duluth just experienced its 3rd coldest January on record. That’s saying something. But, as you pointed out before, wind plays a bigger role in ice formation than cold weather.

Speaking of winds and ice flows, click on this URL. Put it on fast animation and watch the ice flows move from SW to NE across western Lake Superior.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... =hootsuite

[treeplanter]

I just noticed on the "Isle Royale and Keweenaw Parks" Facebook group that Rolf Peterson reports an ice bridge between Isle Royale and the mainland has existed in some form since January 25th.

[drobarge]

I have an old friend (now passed) from the Keweenaw who along with some adventurous partners made an attempt to dogsled to the Island in the 70's! They nearly made it. However they made the decision to turn back due to wave action in the ice about 12-15 miles short of Chippewa Hbr. Keep in mind this was a long time ago- no dogs allowed.