Ice Bridge Forming?

[treeplanter]

Anybody who lives in the upper midwest knows how cold it's been the past three weeks. Amasa, Michigan had -39 F last week. These cold temps have really accelerated ice creation on Lake Superior. Looks like the beginnings of an ice bridge may be forming. Last year, this didn't happen until mid-February.

[Midwest Ed]

Let's hope the newly transplanted wolves now feel at home and aren't pining for the old life.

[hooky]

Yesterday

[johnhens]

I know some of the wolves have collars and the researchers can monitor them, but hoping the researchers are on the Island so they can monitor any movement towards the ice bridge.

[treeplanter]

I know some of the wolves have collars and the researchers can monitor them, but hoping the researchers are on the Island so they can monitor any movement towards the ice bridge.

I'm pretty sure the winter study is on this year. They normally get there around January 20th.

As for the forming ice bridge, it's already gone. This time of year all it takes is one good wind event and the ice breaks up. Open water between Isle Royale and Ontario as of yesterday, January 27th. But it's early. Maximum ice coverage on Lake Superior is normally the first part of March. As long as it stays cold, the ice bridge will return.

[Dogger]

At noaa coastwatch you can get real time satellite images of lake superior.

[Iconic]

Assuming the ice bridge forms, the wolves will have the freedom to choose to stay on the rock, or freedom to migrate to the mainland. Win win for them and newborn moose calves.

[treeplanter]

Assuming the ice bridge forms, the wolves will have the freedom to choose to stay on the rock, or freedom to migrate to the mainland. Win win for them and newborn moose calves.

Or new wolves come over from Ontario and/or Minnesota. Maybe five years ago, two wolves came over from the mainland, spent two weeks on the Island, and went back. On vacation I guess.

[Iconic]

two wolves came over from the mainland, spent two weeks on the Island, and went back. On vacation I guess.

Thank you for that

[treeplanter]

If this is to be believed (not sure I do), there is now 6-12" of ice connecting Isle Royale to Ontario.

[backwoods doc]

So how exactly do they come up with these estimates of ice thickness?

I'm guessing that they don't head out there with an ice auger and a tape measure...

[treeplanter]

...So how exactly do they come up with these estimates of ice thickness?

I'm guessing that they don't head out there with an ice auger and a tape measure...

Don't know. Probably infrared, ultraviolet, etc. satellite imagery. They may "ground" truth some locations.

[Dogger]

Saw the image above. Went to coastwatch noaa looked at the satellite image for the 2 and there was 0 ice. Just blue water between IR and Canada. On the 4 at 19:43 GMT there is ice but not solid. On the Canadian side it is broke up and open water

[Midwest Ed]

Saw the image above. Went to coastwatch noaa looked at the satellite image for the 2 and there was 0 ice. Just blue water between IR and Canada. On the 4 at 19:43 GMT there is ice but not solid. On the Canadian side it is broke up and open water

Say it isn't so! Government agencies providing less than accurate info?

Often the "supposed" data published on various topics are based on computer modeling (they do say "estimated"). In which case this model would be looking at water and air surface temperatures and wave action over time. Another, but much less common, error is the date on the website graphic sometimes simply being the date the web page was published, or the date the data was compiled (or model program run). When it's something like a satellite image the date is clearly evident , but other graphic sources are always susceptible.

[treeplanter]

Saw the image above. Went to coastwatch noaa looked at the satellite image for the 2 and there was 0 ice. Just blue water between IR and Canada. On the 4 at 19:43 GMT there is ice but not solid. On the Canadian side it is broke up and open water

Not surprised. All it takes is one good wind event and the ice goes away. I've been watching both the U.S. and Canadian Ice pages. Ice conditions change almost daily. The main takeaway is that ice has formed much earlier than last year (which had an ice bridge). If we keep on having cold weather, there's a good chance that another ice bridge will form. Anybody's guess as to how long it will stick around.